The American economy has been stuck in a rut for a very, very long time. The unemployment rate, for instance, has been lodged above 8% since February 2009; it has remained there throughout President Obama’s term of office. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average has yet to surpass the 14,000 point level that it first reached in the pre-crash days of July 2007.
At first glance, last week’s news of a retail sales increase appeared to represent a rare signal of hope. But then it was reported that the increase was attributable, in large part, to a recent surge in the retail price of commercial gasoline.
The rise in the price of gas is particularly surprising, occurring in the post-Labor Day period when prices customarily decline as Americans return to work from their summer driving vacations. But is it possible that higher gasoline prices might actually help lift the United States out of its economic rut?
An Addiction To Imported Fuel
Traditionally, high gasoline prices have been detrimental to the American economy. The spike in energy costs during the 1970s, for instance, wreaked havoc on the financial security of the United States; it led President Jimmy Carter to declare that the development of a national energy policy represented the moral equivalent of war.
But that was a time when the American energy industry was focused on the importation of fossil fuels from foreign sources. Under such circumstances, any increase in the price of fuel would inevitably draw funds away from alternative domestic uses and fuel the profits of foreign providers.
For a while, America’s domestic nuclear power industry appeared to offer a home-grown solution to the nation’s addiction to foreign fuels. But the specter of nuclear disaster that was imposed on the nation’s psyche by the Three Mile Island crisis in 1979, stoked by films such as The China Syndrome that year, locked the American energy industry into a strategy of importation.
So how has the American economy evolved during the past few decades? Why might higher fuel prices actually trigger an increase in domestic energy output, and ultimately lead to economic prosperity, today?
A primary reason, first and foremost, is that the United States is now producing a significant amount of energy resources to meet its own domestic needs. North Dakota has surged past Alaska to become the nation’s second largest energy provider, trailing only Texas. Pennsylvania, a major producer of crude oil in the late 1800s, is again producing energy resources with the use of fracking technologies and methods. And soon, the southern tier of New York State may begin doing so as well.
Furthermore, the Canadian province of Alberta has also recently become a major producer of fossil fuels. Given the extensive integration of the national economies of the United States and Canada, additional upstream energy activity in the Albertan region inevitably stimulates the economies of the northern American states too.
These developments have prompted Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney to declare that North America would achieve “energy independence” by his prospective eighth year in office, i.e. by the year 2020. Although some analysts believe that full energy independence may not necessarily represent an achievable (or perhaps even a desirable) goal, most do acknowledge that the emerging domestic energy industry is strengthened by higher energy prices.
A Gas Tax For The Deficit
High fuel prices generate indirect benefits as well. When the costs of fossil fuels are very high, the (generally always high) costs of renewable energy begin to represent competitive alternatives in comparative terms, and American consumers and businesses shift to these new “green” technologies.
The demand for solar panels, for instance, has increased in tandem with the recent spike in the costs of oil and gasoline. Although American panel manufacturers like the ill-fated Solyndra have yielded market share to Chinese producers lately, all panels (even those manufactured in Asia) require installation and maintenance in the United States, necessitating new jobs for the American economy.
Some well known commentators are actually advocating for higher retail taxes if the cost of gasoline drops back towards historical norms. Thomas Friedman, a global columnist for the New York Times and the author of the book The World Is Flat, has repeatedly called for an American taxation policy that imposes a retail gasoline surcharge of $1.00 and then applies all government revenues to reductions in the federal budget deficit. The United States, interestingly, has never paid a tax that is explicitly designed to reduce its accumulated debt.
Considering the aversion of America’s Republican Party to any new streams of taxation, it is unlikely that Americans will experience a national $1.00 per gallon gasoline tax at any time in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, they shouldn’t be surprised if the recent surge in retail gasoline prices eventually produces some unexpected (and yet quite welcome) benefits for the American economy.